The Puppet Master That Is Putin

“Russia Invades Ukraine”, this headline flashed across all major news channels in the early hours of Thursday (24) morning. If you have been cut off from any media source for the past few weeks, then you would be forgiven for assuming that this was some joke, or worse a hack. However, for the rest of the world, this headline was the culmination of months of speculation and posturing throughout Europe and the U.S.

The last few months have seen the U.S. and Europe confront Russia over a perceived threat of an imminent invasion of Ukraine, Russia for their part held firm to a denial while demanding thar Ukraine shelves their ambitions to obtain NATO membership. Depictions of the tensions, while vivid, was certainly far from accurate. Western dominated news outlets would have viewers believe that Russia was using its last roll of the dice, threatening war in the desperate hope that Ukraine would cede to their demands. It was, or so the representation of the situation would have us assume, a case of Russia up against the combined force of the U.S. and Western Europe.

Yet the reality, as is so often the case, was in stark contrast to what we would have liked to have believed. Putin was very much in control of the situation, subtly manipulating the key players into position on a stage of his own making. This is a man who has been at the helm of his country, officially and unofficially, for over two decades. He knew his opponents better than they knew each other, and that has proved to be to his advantage.

With the overly public build-up and positioning of Russian troops on the Ukrainian border, Putin allowed his adversaries to assume the roles they have so often played in the past. The U.S. was quick to latch on to the military centric rhetoric that Russia was seeking to invade Ukraine, France and Germany assumed the measured statements of the need for open dialogue and restraint. It was a poorly disguised partnership of “good- cop-bad-cop”. Unfortunately, these world powers no longer possess the leadership capable of going toe-to-toe with an autocrat who has his eyes set firmly on the prize.

Putin assumed the role of the petulant child. He wanted what he wanted but would be willing to settle for an alternative if enticed enough. The deceit of hindsight is the latterly instilled belief in the un-initiated that reality was always staring us right in the face. Of course, for seasoned political leaders, it should not be too much to expect a little more maturity and guile when dealing with world leaders such as Putin.

While, as expected, the key figures all played the roles that had been laid out for them, they made the rookie mistake of believing the very hype they had been charged with creating. The U.S., having so comfortably assumed the role of the blustering super-power who would deploy the full might of their armed forces, truly believed that they were still capable of discouraging any military actions on the part of Russia. Europe, who wished to be the 19th Century Gentleman who shied away from violence, preferring to discuss matters over a glass brandy, bought into the appearance that they were still the masters of negotiation.

It is little wonder than that when Putin finally announced that he would be launching a “military operation” into Ukraine, the world leaders were forced to do a double take.

In fact, it was the head of the international body charged with maintaining global peace and order who was the final character in the play that Putin had masterfully written. During a heartfelt appeal by the Secretary-General of the United Nations to Putin, delivered at a hastily convened United Nations Security Council meeting, the Russian President announced his intention to militarily intervene in Ukraine. To the detriment of global peace, Putin has dispersed the very notions that these countries held to so firmly. The palpable sense of disbelief and broken confidence was made clear through their frantic moves to respond to this declaration of war. The U.S, who had only a few days ago introduced sanctions on a few third and fourth rung individuals in the Putin administration was forced to re-evaluate. Joe Biden’s team has promised a host of new sanctions, but to what extent these will be remains to be seen. Similar utterances were heard across Western Europe as the leaders were left looking in their bag of tricks for that trump card

Putin has, in one swift manoeuvre, threatened the very balance of power on the global stage. While it has been argued that the unipolar power structure that has existed post-Cold War has been challenged with the emergence of China, Putin has certainly laid his mark on the process. The inability, or a more aptly described unwillingness, of the Western Powers to see through any meaningful intervention into Ukraine will have destroyed the aura that has been so carefully crafted these past several decades.

The U.S. has found themselves struggling to make up lost ground on the international stage following their devastating withdrawal from Afghanistan last year. Failure to have prevented Russia’s invasion of Ukraine seems in many ways yet another nail in the coffin of the U.S’ foreign policy dominance. Sanctions, which has become a clutch word for all those involved in the ongoing crisis, could certainly prove to be a potent weapon against the Oligarch backed Putin Government. However, economic matters seem to always trump human rights. In 2016, it was estimated that Russia’s investments in the U.K. stood at a sizeable £25.5bn. Any meaningful sanctions would hurt the U.K. just as much as it would hurt Russia. I suppose now is the time that the world leaders can deploy the apt “cutting off your nose to spite your face” idiom. Similarly, Russia continues to dominate the supply of natural gas to Western Europe. Come winter when the temperatures drop below freezing, the politicians in Germany will certainly value their voters being able to turn on their heaters ahead of intervening in an unjust foreign war.

As the Ukraine crisis continued to drag on week-in-week-out, pundits were roused with the glaring similarities between the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis and the 2022 Ukraine-Russia Crisis. While 60 years ago the then two super-powers in Russia and the U.S.A. were brought to the brink of war, saner minds prevailed with a calm de-escalation of tensions. Unfortunately for the millions who face the shadows of war, it appears that those on the opposite side of the aisle to Putin had an over-reliance on him backing down from his war-footing. However, the former KJB operative that is Vladimir Putin is not going to be satisfied with a simple flex of the muscles. The gloves are off, the fists are balled, and the Russian President is swinging.